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Continued weak yen may create new problems even after US-Japan intervention_我的网站

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    Illustration: Xia Qing/GT
The yen has weakened in recent days, edging closer to the psychologically important 160 level against the US dollar. The decline comes despite the widely watched move by Washington to join Tokyo in supporting the currency. Less than two weeks after the US-Japan intervention, the yen has given up roughly half of its gains, raising fresh questions over the effectiveness of coordinated efforts to stabilize the exchange rate.
Japan and the US had previously confirmed coordinated foreign exchange intervention to prop up the yen after the currency tumbled to a nearly 40-year low. At the time, some observers saw the move as potentially stabilizing the yen in the short term, although its longer-term impact remained uncertain. 
However, the subsequent market reaction suggests that even the short-term effect may have been limited. After strengthening to about 155 per dollar in the days following the intervention from above 163, the yen had slipped back above 159 by Wednesday, less than two weeks later.
Questions have emerged over whether further support for the yen may soon be needed, and whether Washington would consider stepping in again. The previous intervention was seen by some observers as a test of market confidence: the unusual coordinated move had the potential to influence market expectations and discourage bets against the yen. But if market expectations remain largely unchanged, repeated interventions could deliver diminishing returns. The US may face a difficult trade-off. Another intervention could require greater resources and come at a higher cost, while refraining from further action could raise questions over the lasting impact of the previous effort.
Market commentary has added to the uncertainty. Axios published a report headlined "Yen's weakness shows market isn't done pushing," while some reports suggested that the impact of the US-Japan intervention was beginning to fade. Such narratives could weigh on sentiment toward the yen and reinforce market expectations that the currency's weakness may persist.
Washington's involvement in supporting the yen may reflect broader economic and policy considerations. These could include avoiding a scenario in which Japan sells US Treasury holdings to support the currency, as well as concerns that a weaker yen could give Japanese exporters a greater competitive advantage. These possible considerations suggest that the intervention alone does not fully address the underlying forces behind the yen's weakness. This may help explain why the market has so far been reluctant to view the move as a turning point for the currency.
Washington's decision to join the intervention may have reflected concerns, as some observers suggest, that the yen's prolonged weakness had begun to affect US interests. If markets remain unconvinced by the US-Japan intervention, one possible outcome is that Washington could push Japan to take more costly measures to support the yen. Such a scenario could instead create some strain between Washington and Tokyo.
Beyond short-term market dynamics, the yen's weakness also reflects deeper challenges facing the Japanese economy, making a sustained reversal difficult. The currency's prolonged weakness has been influenced by the interest rate gap between Japan and the US, while also reflecting longer-term concerns over the diminishing returns of Japan's traditional growth model.
This leaves Japan facing a delicate policy balance between supporting growth and stabilizing the currency. While lower interest rates could help boost economic activity, continued weakness in the yen may strengthen calls for Japan's central bank to consider further rate increases to narrow the interest rate gap with the US.
Japan's structural challenges mean that a sustained appreciation of the yen will not be easy to achieve. The question of whether to pursue stronger measures, even at the cost of some economic growth, has become more complicated as the US takes a role in the issue. Japan may face greater pressure to support the currency, even though doing so would be difficult and could carry broader economic costs.
The author is a reporter with the Global Times. [email protected]

。    日前，民航局发布《民用无人驾驶航空器操控员和云系统数据统计报告（2023年）》（以下简称《报告》）。《报告》显示，我国民用无人驾驶航空器（以下简称“无人机”）产业蓬勃发展，无人机操控员规模持续增长，截至2023年底，共有19.44万人拥有无人机操控员执照，较上年增加5.6万人。《报告》同时通过无人机云系统运行数据统计分析，呈现了当前行业无人机运行发展情况与未来趋势，将为行业各参与方把握需求、制定策略提供参考。·截至2023年底，各机型中，多旋翼无人机操控员执照数量占主导地位，占比达92.74%。从年龄结构来看，无人机操控员年龄分布广泛，涵盖1947年至2007年出生人群。从地区分布来看，华东、中南地区2023年无人机操控员执照颁发数量领先，无人机应用相对活跃。·截至2023年底，全国共有95个无人机操控员执照考试点，其中30个为2023年新增考试点，较上年增长31.5%。

二 | 各机型中，多旋翼无人机操控员执照考试通过率较高，理论考试、实践考试通过率分别为84.70%、97.26%，反映出该机型在培训、考试方面相对成熟。·截至2023年底，全年共有约24.5万架无人机参与交换系统数据共享。2023年，交换系统上各云系统提供的有效数据为29.67亿条，换算成飞行时间为412.05万小时，较上年增加218.09万小时。其中多旋翼无人机占绝对主流，占总运行量的99.7%；从运行管理分类来看，植保类无人机运行量最大，占总运行量的98.27%，较上年增加近8个百分点，显示出农业植保领域对无人机的强烈需求。·交换系统数据显示，大多数无人机运行具有低空低速的显著特征，几乎所有2023年参与数据交换的无人机运行速度均小于15米/秒，符合当前无人机主要用于航拍、监视和农业等任务的特点。从运行时段来看，目前我国无人机主要在昼间运行，2023年无人机运行的最高峰值出现在上午，峰值时间段为北京时间9时至11时；下午的峰值时间段为北京时间16时至18时。民航局飞行标准司相关负责人表示，随着无人机操控员队伍的壮大、技术应用的深化以及管理政策的完善，无人机行业将继续作为低空经济的重要组成部分，展现出强劲的发展潜力和广阔的应用前景。下一步，将继续跟踪分析无人机行业发展需求，进一步完善统计内容和数据质量，为行业和社会提供更有价值的信息参考。（中国小康网综合民航局网站、央视新闻）。

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